I probably could have put this in the general discussions forum, but I'm hoping it will generate some better thoughts here in the serious discussions area. Also, if you don't get the title, don't worry about it; it's just a Dr Strangelove reference. Anyway, to the main affair: The Singularity! What is it? When will it happen? No body knows, and it could happen at any moment! But seriously, the term "singularity" just means something, either an event in time, or a physical barrier or location past which you cannot see and it is basically impossible to predict what comes after. When people talk about "The Singularity" they usually mean the point at which technology advances so fast that the world will be changed in ways that we can't even imagine. Some people say this will happen in the next few years, others say it will happen next century, and others still just think it's a load of nonsense altogether. My vote is that it will happen in the 21st century, but probably later rather than sooner. Computers are getting faster and society is changing, especially now that we all have internet and talk to each other a lot more, but on the whole if you look outside your window things still look a lot like they did in the past 100 years. Most of the exciting world changing technologies are still just in laboratories right now. But, they do exist and are on their way. That all being said, i'm excited for it. I think that on the whole there will be dangers and setbacks like disease and a little bit of chaos in the transition... but it will be worth it to transition into the world that until now has only been science fiction. I'm optimistic. Anyway, those are my thoughts, what do you think?
The problem with this idea of the technological singularity is that it relies on Moore's Law. Why is that a problem? Well, for the efficiency and power of computers to grow exponentially (due to the periodic growth of the number of transistors on an integrated circuit, which happens to be double every eighteen months, as cited within Moore's Law), new elements constantly need to be appropriated for use in microchips and other technological hardware. Since there are a limited number of elements within the Periodic Table, there is also a limit to the exponential growth of the number of transistors on an integrated circuit. Therefore, there is also an unseen asymptote, or a limit, on the graph of Moore's Law which proponents of the technological singularity are so fond of. This technological singularity does not concern me overmuch. That's a different kind of singularity.
The event horizon of a black hole is a type of singularity, yes. In the case of a black hole it's the barrier past which we don't know what exists. There are no agreed upon physical theories to predict what actually happens inside of a black hole, and since light (and thus information) can't escape the event horizon we can only guess what happens inside them. While I agree with the fact that moores law has it's limits, I wonder if the singularity could be explained as just something more abstract. Like, not so much a point on moore's graph, but rather a point where various social and technological things come to a head and something world altering occurs... doesnt necessarily have to be exponential, just significant.
Well, then what you have left is an idea. This conversation then becomes less mathematical theory and more "What if?" What if the sky was orange? What if I'm really Elijah Wood? What if one day artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence? While those questions are interesting, I find that I can only answer with "Yes, what if?"
Right now it seems very doubtful to me. I think more likely is that we are moving towards another "dark age" rather than to further enlightenment.
I think the singularity will occur roughly in the second half of this century. However, beforehand I fully expect there to be major conflicts over basic resources such as water and food/arable land, wherein such things as the Geneva Convention and Rules Of Engagement are seen as anachronisms. Real brutality. Post-singularity I guess at there being a supremely divided world between the very few with Singularity-tech that will be all but pure magic (nanotech construction capable of nearly anything, instantaneously healing, elimination of disease, cold fusion, Matrix/Inception-style VR entertainment, etc.) and billions of third world level paupers (think the slums of Lagos). I am purely of this opinion as I perceive humanity as a reactionary species. It takes a major shock to the status quo for us to start giving a proper damn about fixing it, even if by that point it is impossible, e.g. climate change being taken seriously only once, say New York City or London, become permanently underwater.
