So I decided to start a thread about a semi-serious issue: SCIENCE! Now, how many of you have heard of the concept of Technological Singularity? Do you think its an actual possibility? If so, when? 2040's as Moore's Law predicts, or in the far future, beyond our own short lifespans? For those of you that don't know, the Singularity is an event speculated to happen sometime in the 21st century where literally everything will change. Basically, Technology will progress to the point that AI will be possible, illness will be irrelevant, and we will be, for all intents and purposes, immortal. Now, I know that sounds pretty crazy, but as it turns out, its actually a possibility. See, there's a law- Moore's Law- that states that the rate at which Technology advances is exponential. This has been proven true several times throughout history. Now, in the last... fifty years... we've invented the home computer, the internet, the microchip, smart phones, tablets, etc. All in a matter of fifty years. Consider this: Just 200 or so years ago we invented the Cotton Gin. 200 years. Cotton Gin to Internet. Think about it. The 20th century was an era of growth never seen before in technological fields, and it only continues to grow. Thus, according to this law of exponential growth, Technology will eventually progress to the point of technology surpassing Biology. Nanobots in the blood to remove disease, robotic prosthetics, and, the key to our immortality: The ability to upload and download our conscious into a cloned body. And this theory of singularity isn't something cooked up by insane conspiracy theorists; no, actual respected scientists thought this up, including famed futurist Ray Kurzweil, who invented a computer that could compose and play music when he was sixteen-- in the 1950s. He's predicted the growth of technology for years now, and so far, he's literally never been wrong, and when he has been wrong, he was off by at most ten years. He predicts Singularity should happen at around 2040, though this, in my opinion, is likely too soon. This picture illustrates Moore's Law: For more information: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil http://singinst.org/?gclid=CL235_jr7awCFQg1hwodUUbVNA Thoughts? Opinions?
I don't doubt this fact, Why? Here's a chart comparing A CPU and a GPU. (For GPU computing.) This is current technology.
Humanity cannot, and WILL not become immortal. If we do, I think I'd fight that system. We die for a reason. We have no right to be, for all intents and purposes, immortal.
Its not true immortality; simply the closest thing to it. Basically, it'd be very very hard for us to die. We'd be able to live for centuries at a time, and most diseases wouldn't be able to even effect us, and cloning (as well as the ability to transfer your conscience mind) is a possibility, as well, rendering us technically immortal. But possibly sterile.
Technological singularity, hm? Well, I read an article that some uni students and professors managed to fabricate a material which can, basically, do anything to electrons. Interesting concept.
Which is exactly why I won't accept this future as a fact. I'm perfectly fine with living a few decades. I'd rather not live a few centuries. I don't care if it gives me intelligence or wisdom. Having a short life-span is what makes life magical. I'd rather do everything I can, then DO everything I can, then have a bland, uneventful life for a century or two. I'm sorry. But I'd rather have a short, eventful life.
It is indeed an interesting concept that is worth at least listening to. Then you can, not everyone would be immortal/live for a long time. You could choose to die (or "unplug" really) at any time.
Being connected via singularity to life... It's unnatural. I'd unplug in a heartbeat when I'm old and have had my fun.
I guess the only thing i disagree on here is immortality; that will never be possible. Also, i do doubt that technology will exceed biology someday; We don't even use 10% of our brain in our whole life. Just imagine what would happen if we used the 90% that are left; We know little about biology and we know all about technology.
Mythbusters (Lol) has already proved that we use, on average, 50% of our brains doing menial tasks, and even while sleeping, our brain has 20% function. The highest recorded brain usage, using MRI technology, was 74%. The whole 10% of our brains thing is... nope.
I remember Sheldon Cooper saying he needed to expand his lifespan to obtain this, and it seems believable that Technological Singularity wouldn't be possible within our lifetimes, but Moore's law has a very convincing case provided the past trend of advancements.
There was a time when I thought that this concept was laughable, ludicrous and the product of an overactive melodramatic imagination. I would scoff at my boyfriend constantly talking about "Terminator" movies and talking about machines taking over the world. I was completely unfazed and felt secure in our being able to control our technology. However... Click on the images to see larger versions. (FROM LEFT TO RIGHT; TOP TO BOTTOM: HTC Smartphone, Apple iPad 2, Microsoft Metro GUI) ******** ******** Technology is becoming more and more integrated and more and more a part of our everyday lives. Our technology can now anticipate what we want and what we are going to ask it via "smart" technology (just a fancy, marketable term for a new kind of AI) and it is becoming more and more adaptable to what we demand of it. Computers do a lot of our work for us and have replaced thousands of jobs which used to employ humans. We rely on our technology to remember phone numbers. We rely on technology to let us take college and university courses now, too. Our children are growing up with the attention spans of fruit flies and the social skills of rocks due to heavy exposure to technology and devices that reduce face-to-face interaction. Machines and computers perform complicated tasks like surgery and medicine dispensation. The worst part is that not only do we allow these changes to happen but we are actually embracing them! Along with all of this, hardware also continues to get more and more powerful at an exponential rate. Put all of this together and I no longer think the "Singularity" theory is hogwash; I am now genuinely frightened and worried for the future of humanity.
What is an AI? An AI is an intelligence. Therefore, it can learn. True, there are even now computers that can learn, but even then, they can only learn what we tell them to be able to learn. Until they can learn anything, until they are as alive as we are, we can not say we have an AI. As such, I give it, say 100ish years untill we have a true AI.
The thing is you're assuming Technology will continue to advance at the same rate that it is right now. It won't. Moore's Law has proven that the rate at which technology is discovered/invented only increases exponentially.
I am taking it into consideration. Just not blindly. First of all, this is not a Law per se. It is a trend, a theory, a hypothesis even. As such, we do not know if it is true, but we assume it. Even assuming that, we have to take into account other limits. Specifically, medicine. Medicine does not advance exponentially. It advances rather slowly in fact. Much slower than we expect. How is this relevant? How do you build something? You first have to have the ability, the materials. Then you need to understand what you are building. As such, until we understand how the mind works completely, we can not build a true AI. We simply lack the knowledge of what it is we need to build, and here, any number of computers is helpless. What we need is a medical description of how the brain works, and a psychological one of how the mind does. For these, a century is a very generous estimate. I also took into account that we can stumble upon it accidentally, so read the 100 years as an average.
History's many dark ages would like a word with you. While speculation's fun, the future's unknowable.
I have always feared the ability for one to be "immortal". Think about it. Could you REALLY stand living on such a planet as this for CENTURIES? I think that God will end this world before such a horrible thing is ever achieved by us. And if it was ever to be achieved, I'm with Saikyo (and I love how it was put); I'd fight the system.
A system where we become possibly sterile, live for hundreds of years, and rely on technology is a system that I will always oppose. Technology is there to help us, not rule us. An ultimate example is the fact that as an experiment, I released a computer virus into my school's database and knocked out half of the internet for everyone. Nothing would be done, no assignments, anything, for 3 weeks until they got it contained and disposed of. It was widespread panic; nothing was being done. Why? Because we RELIED on technology to store our data and work, when we SHOULD use our brains and resources given to us that are imperishable.
